Monthly Archives: November 2013

Measuring the Complexity of Bitcoin

November 29, 2013 By in Blog, Economic Theory Tags: , , , , 3 Comments

I looked at the distribution of transactions of 1 hour of the block chain (269609 to 269618). I parsed the blockchain into two sets of transactions: originating and receiving addresses. I examined both sets independently and together, attempting to fit the three different trials to Gamma distributions. The receiving addresses proved to have the easiest to interpret set of data, and did not follow a Gamma distribution. Instead, the receiving transactions followed a Log-Normal distribution. Figure 1 shows the results of the data and the resulting fit. The data in figure 1 was parsed into blocks that are 2dB wide (every decade of transactions size is 5 bins, the first bin is 10^{-6}BTC, 1BTC is the 30th bin)

Figure 1, Receiving address distribution of bitcoin transactions blocks 269609 to 269618 with Log-Normal fit

Figure 1, Receiving address distribution of bitcoin transactions blocks 269609 to 269618 with Log-Normal fit

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Theft at the Grandest Scale

November 13, 2013 By in Blog, Data Analysis, Economic Theory, Policy Tags: , , , , , , , , , , 5 Comments

Theft is a strong word. It requires two things, desire and a lack of consent. One party desires something from another and takes it without their consent. Simple. My current project is developing an understanding of macroeconomics based on a formal aggregation of microeconomics. I did not anticipate the understanding that I found. This last weekend I worked on understanding claims against wealth inequality. I began by looking at the distribution of income derived form the Average Wage Index (AWI) from 1990-2012. Plotted on a Log-Log scale the distribution appeared to follow a canonical distribution Figure 1.

Figure 1 distribution of wealth (# people/$ v. income) in United States (2012)

Figure 1 distribution of wealth (# people/$ v. income) in United States (2012)

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The Chilling Effect of Inflation

November 7, 2013 By in Blog Tags: , , , , , , , , , 3 Comments

There has been some discussion in the news about inflation. Japan is actively pursuing inflationary policy with the Yen. The Federal Reserve is not backing off of its Quantitative Easing, taper-off. Meanwhile, India is is watching their currency collapse. And the ECB just announced a surprise lowering of their interest rates. One of the hallmarks of modern economic theory is the stimulatory nature of increasing consumption now. This is financed through two mechanisms, debt and increasing the monetary base. The root of the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve is that inflation as shown by the Phillips Curve causes higher employment. This is dangerous policy. Here is the math explaining why. Continue reading →

My Comments before Georgia’s Public Service Commission 5 Nov 2013

November 5, 2013 By in Blog, Energy, Natural Gas, Policy, Renewables Tags: , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

Thank you for the opportunity to speak before the Commission today.

I spent the last five years studying energy policy, leading to two career changes, and my pursuit of a PhD at Tech in Nuclear Engineering. What I thought was a challenging set of circumstances is much more complex–with significant consequences. Energy is a cornerstone of our economy. It’s use represents 80% of our GDP. If we are to grow our economy, increasing our access to energy carries the utmost importance. It should be our goal to reduce energy’s cost. While we do not have control over fuel costs, we do control how we use them and our policies to regulate their use. Continue reading →